Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
