Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
